FiveThirtyEight.com has already been widely covered this election season. But in case you haven’t seen it, it’s worth a look in this final pre-election weekend.
The site aggregates national political polls, with further analysis and commentary by Nate Silver. He’s an analyst for the stats-crunching site Baseball Prospectus, and he applies those same skills to competing polls.
His latest computer model of 10,000 scenarios gives Barack Obama a 95.41% chance of winning the popular vote. More interesting are the longer shots: An 0.93% chance that John McCain loses the popular vote but wins the electoral vote, for instance, or a 6.16% chance that Obama loses Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and still wins the election.
Today he also has a fine roundup of the in-play Senate races around the country.
(In case you’re curious, 538 is the number of available presidential electoral votes.)
From the Who2 blog:
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